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Scoring our Predictions from 2021

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Our predictions for 2021 went pretty well. We made seven predictions and are claiming a score of six out of seven correct (86 percent, a high B). We missed on our longshot guess and we were only half right on two other predictions. We set a new high for accuracy in our predictions.

The first prediction was that the COVID-19 pandemic would come under control in 2021. This is partially correct as a majority of the country is fully vaccinated against COVID-19. There have been a couple of variants that have extended the threat of COVID-19, but with the vaccinated and those that have natural immunity due to having the virus the severe complications were greatly reduced. We will take half credit for this prediction.

The second prediction was that building permits would increase and the housing market would heat up in 2021. We believed that people from areas that had very restrictive COVID-19 lockdowns and high taxes would move to Florida. The pandemic has led to severe restrictions in other states and some people are voting against these restrictions by moving to different states. Florida has seen an influx of people, so 2021 saw significant home sales and new building permits, although sales appeared to be leveling off by the end of 2021. According to the Hernando County building department, we increased from 888 new single-family homes permitted in the fiscal year ending in 2020 and we had 1501 new single-family homes permitted in the fiscal year ending in 2021. We are taking full credit for this prediction.

We predicted that 2021 would see a return of social events and the social calendars in 2021 definitely were much fuller than those of 2020. Many events resumed and the stadiums for sporting events returned to full capacity. The year ended with renewed concerns over the Omicron variant causing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, but events were still continuing to be put on. We are taking full credit for this prediction.

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Our Costco prediction was an attempt at reverse psychology. Since every year we predict that a Costco would be moving to Hernando and every year we are wrong, our reverse psychology guess was that a Costco Warehouse would not open in Hernando County in 2021. That way we get credit for our prediction if we are right and if we’re wrong, that’s okay- we’d have a Costco. Unfortunately, we were correct- No Costco in 2021.

We predicted that hurricanes would bypass the area in 2021. Mostly because we were looking for a less wild year. We were correct the area was not hit by a hurricane although we did have some storms that threatened the area. The season started with a near miss and there were a number of storms in the pipeline. It looked to be a bad year, but currents steered the hurricanes away from us.

We predicted dryer weather for 2021 as compared to 2020. We did not have a single enormous rainfall event, but we had plenty of rain events. In some areas, there was less rainfall and in others, there was a similar amount. We have been receiving unusually large amounts of rain and that continued although year over year it was slightly less. We are taking half credit for our prediction.

This was a really good year for Hernando Sun’s predictions. There were years when we only had a couple of correct predictions and this year we only got a couple wrong. Nostradamus had better watch out. With this kind of accuracy, we will have to start making financial predictions.

Rocco Maglio
Rocco Maglio
This is Rocco's administrative credential. Please use the author credential when posting to an article.
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